Should he stay or should he go?

Posted on December 5, 2008
Filed Under Commentary |

Ban Ki-moon

Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general says he will not visit Burma this month unless a meaningful outcome can be expected.
His comments made on Wednesday through a spokesperson, come despite an open letter from 112 former presidents and prime ministers calling for him to visit the country and push for the release of all political prisoners (See: World leaders call for UN Secretary General to push for release of political prisoners).
The letter, the brainchild of former Norwegian Prime Minister, Kjell Magne Bondevik, was signed by among others Tony Blair, George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Jacques Delors, Kim Dae-jung, and John Major.
It has already won the support of the US Campaign for Burma, which has been lobbying for Ban to visit Burma for sometime. Last night, they sent out an Email to supporters soliciting donations to pay to have the letter reprinted in this Sunday’s edition of the New York Times.
No doubt that would be a powerful publicity stunt, but there are many in Burma who feel Ban should not visit. Recently released political prisoner and senior member of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), U Win Tin has warned Ban’s visit could end up as a nod to tyranny.
It would not be the first time the junta has used the UN to deflect criticism. Last year following the violent crackdown on peaceful mass protests, the junta allowed the UN’s Special Envoy, Ibrahim Gambari to make several visits to the country, even making several concessions, which they have failed to live up to.
With all the flak the junta has been taking recently over the lengthy prison sentences handed out to their opponents, a visit by the secretary-general could be just what the junta wants. All they have to do is release a handful of lesser activists and make some minor concessions towards Aung San Suu Kyi and they’ll be able to claim to be cooperating.
Last week, Italian diplomat, Attilio Massimo Iannucci visited Yangon and met with NLD leaders. He urged them to participate in the junta’s general election in 2010, but many in Burma’s opposition are dismissing the elections and new constitution as a sham.
With splits already appearing in the NLD over how to approach the elections, any comments from Ban that appear to support the junta’s Roadmap for Democracy could cause irreconcilable damage to the NLD’s unity.
Without the prospect of real change, it might be best for Ban to stay away. The US Campaign for Burma argues Ban needs to visit Burma in order to bring attention to the situation in Burma. But, given the criticism directed at Gambari after his last visit earlier this year failed to yield any tangible results (see: Mixed reviews for Gambari), Ban must have reason to question the wisdom of a visit. And, with many Americans skeptical of the UN already, how successful will Ban be at raising attention anyway?
After all, earlier this year, the parade of B list celebrities trotted out by the US Campaign for Burma for its Burma: It Can’t Wait campaign (see: Maradona speaks up for Aung San Suu Kyi) failed to raise awareness, so why should Ban do any better.