Burma, Butterflies and the Beijing Olympics

Posted on February 29, 2008
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Going back about 12 years, there was a lot of excitement about something called chaos theory. Put simply, chaos theory aims to find patterns in seemingly random and unrelated events. One of the best known examples of chaos theory is the butterfly effect, which hypothesizes that a butterfly flapping its wings on one side of the planet can cause a hurricane on the other side.

More recently supporters of the Burmese democracy movement have created their own version of the butterfly effect: Boycotting the Beijing Olympics is going to bring about the downfall of Burma’s military junta.

They argue that boycotting the Olympics is the best way to protest China’s economic and political support for the junta. And, presumably, once that support is withdrawn, the junta will crumble.

However, pointing the finger at China moves the blame from where it rightly should be: The SPDC.

Earlier, this week I got an Email from the United States Campaign for Burma calling on people to not watch the Beijing Olympics unless China withdraws its support of the Burmese junta.

Anyone reading the Email could almost be forgiven for thinking China was directly responsible for oppression, genocide and all the other wrongs committed by the SPDC.

At this point, I want to categorically state that I am against an Olympic boycott. I believe sport should be free from politics, and the Olympics, as the world’s greatest sporting spectacle should not be held to ransom for political gain.

Instead, I stand by the ideals of Baron Pierre de Coubertin, the founder of the modern games, who believed a great deal could be gained by bringing together the youth of the world in friendly competition. He also believed that the Modern Olympic Games would be a period of concord in which differences of status, religion, politics and race would be forgotten.

Of course, since then the Olympics have evolved into a multibillion dollar spectacle, with much at stake for the host city.

But, the idea that the mere thought of the Beijing Olympics not being an unparallel success is enough to bring about a U-turn in Chinese foreign policy is laughable.

Sporting boycotts have a terrible track record. The US boycotted the 1980 Olympics in Moscow in protest at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. However, the games went ahead and were very successful and nine years later, the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan.

Even the most committed disciple of chaos theory is going to have trouble making the connection on that one.

The only people to suffer from the US boycott were the American athletes, who had spent years training for an event they were no longer able to compete in.

Supporters of the boycott claim that allowing China to host the games will cause the Olympics to be tainted of genocide and oppression. But, the only people talking about genocide and oppression, which is presumably where this taint will come from, are the protestors themselves.

In fact, putting pressure on China may even have a negative effect, by forcing China to withdraw further from the international community. One of the few successes the UN has enjoyed recently in dealing with Burma, the visits by special envoy Ibrahim Gambari have come about after China privately put pressure on the junta.

Likewise, supporters of a boycott also like to point to China’s support for totalitarian regimes in North Korea and the Sudan. Yet, it is only because of China’s efforts that North Korea is taking part in six party talks on its nuclear program.

The simple truth is that by engaging these regimes, China has far more influence than those that would seek to alienate them.

Perhaps this is a lesson the West needs to learn in its dealings with China. With over a billion people and increasing success in a number of sports, the day is quickly coming when the Olympics will need China more than China needs the Olympics!

I imagine Britain would have a lot more to lose in terms of prestige if the Chinese decided to boycott the 2012 London Olympics in retaliation, as the Russians did with the Los Angeles games in 1984.